A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both authors two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
